With a fleeting 30 minutes before the games tip off today, I thought I'd go ahead and demonstrate how little I know about college basketball. So, away with the picks!
South Region - Clearly, this is the toughest region. Three of last year's final four teams are in this region, and Kentucky has kind of a tough test in a potential UConn matchup in the round of 32. Even so, this is a region rife with giant killers: 7-seed Notre Dame has beaten Syracuse, 4-seed Indiana handed Kentucky a memorable defeat earlier in the year, 3-seed Baylor is fresh off a win over Kansas, and 2-seed Duke has taken down UNC, Michigan State, and Kansas this year. Elsewhere, 5-seed Wichita State is what some consider the best non-BCS team in the tourney this year, 6-seed UNLV took down UNC early in the year, even 8-seed Iowa State has a win over Kansas on its resume. This bracket is littered with talent and teams that know how to win big ones. However, I think Calipari builds on what he did last year and takes the Wildcats to the Final Four for the second year in a row. Winner: Kentucky.
East Region: This region just became somewhat takeable, as news of Fab Melo's ineligibility lend every team in this region a glimmer of hope. Three of the hottest teams in the nation are in this region in Vandy, Cincy, and FSU, all fresh off surprising runs to their conference championship games (and with only Cincy losing). K-State is a team with the athleticism to pull off something big, but also the inconsistency to blow an opener against Southern Miss. Harvard is in for the first time in decades, and despite Vandy's recent weakness in the 4 and 5 spots, I think this Vandy team gets the job done. 4-seed Wisconsin has been a bit of an enigma this year, with stifling defense but a very Jekyll and Hyde offense. Any team with an offense that has a tendency to disappear has few hopes for making a deep run in March. 7-seed Gonzaga vs. 10-seed WVU should be a good one, and I'll take the Mountaineers in that one, thanks to the athleticism of Kevin Jones and the experience that a Big East regular season lends them. I think we'll see Cuse, Vandy, Cincy and Ohio State in the Sweet 16, and I think Ohio State takes them all down to reach the Final Four with Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas powering them through. Winner: Ohio State.
Midwest Region: As much as people wanted to bitch that Duke got a clear path to the Final Four in 2010, I hear no similar bitching about UNC's gift-wrapped region this year. Clearly, this is the easiest region in the whole dance, with 2-seed Kansas having proven susceptible to the upset bug this year, 3-seed Georgetown having a checkered recent history in the tourney, and 4-seed Michigan playing a style of basketball that the Heels can simply overwhelm with their up-tempo approach. I'm giving Robbie Hummel and Purdue a win over St. Mary's in the opener, but they'll run up against a tough Kansas team and have no answer for Thomas Robinson inside. Georgetown SHOULD beat Belmont (I don't think they will shit the bed two years in a row at the 3-spot, but Belmont is scary and came within one point of beating Duke at Cameron this year). I like NCST over SDSU, because Gottfried has the boys playing their best basketball of the year, and NSCT puts some freak athletes on the floor with a sharpshooter in Scott Wood who makes you guard every inch of the halfcourt. I like Michigan in the opener, and I think USF can spring the 12-5 upset of Temple. Maybe I'm riding a bit high on the Bulls, so I'll take Michigan to knock them off in the round of 32. I'm going chalk in the Sweet 16 in this region, as the high seeds should get through with little trouble. But what does it matter? UNC will have John Henson back and roll to the Final Four. Winner: UNC.
West Region: Perhaps a flip-flop of seedings here, with Michigan State nabbing the 1-seed and Mizzou getting the 2, but no matter. This is a bracket full of up-tempo teams including Long Beach State, Murray State, Marquette, Florida, and Mizzou. Louisville enters playing its best defense (and thus, basketball) of the year, while Long Beach State hopes to capitalize on its monstrous non-conference SOS to finally get a tourney win. LBSU is the only upset I'm picking in the first round here, although 10-seed UVA over 7-seed Florida isn't a stretch--I just think the Gators are too athletic and better at the guard positions than UVA. In the Sweet 16, I have Michigan State, Long Beach (upset over Louisville), Murray State (via a win over 3-seed Marquette), and Mizzou. I don't think any of those defenses can keep up with Mizzou, and Mizzou takes the region, knocking off MSU in the Elite 8. Winner: Mizzou.
Final Four: That leaves me with Kentucky-Mizzou and Ohio State-UNC in the national semis. I like Kentucky here--they've played a ridiculous schedule all year, have proven their mettle in going undefeated in the SEC, and oh yeah, they can shoot, dribble, dunk, and defend. Even if you hold Kentucky's scorers down, good luck getting open looks against them. Mizzou's offense runs into an immovable object in Anthony Davis, and the Wildcats move on to the title game. I also like Carolina here--the same team that went to the Elite 8 last year knows what it takes to do well in the tourney, and Carolina always seems to get up for the big games. Zeller and Henson are ridiculously tough to deal with inside, although Ohio State is probably a team that can do it. Aaron Craft will be a great defensive matchup for Kendall Marshall, but I think the Heels are capable of playing at a much higher level than Ohio State, and if that holds true, look for UNC to move on. Winners: Kentucky and UNC.
National Championship: Kentucky-UNC. Probably the two teams I can't stand the most in college basketball, so it pains me to even write about this. This was a great game early in the year, with a last-second block by Anthony Davis sealing the win for Kentucky. I think Carolina has gotten considerably better since then, thanks to some eye-opening losses. Kentucky has probably gotten better since then, but has not effectively had all its flaws exposed. I think Ol' Roy and the Heels come in with a plan and execute their way to another title. Winner: UNC.
Ugh. I'm gonna go hurl.
