Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Fantasy Thoughts, Week 2

My not-so-quick thoughts after Week 2:

- F you, Miami Dolphins. All preseason, I hear that you will feature Reggie Bush as your RB this year. As a long-time Reggie fan, I remain skeptical at the likelihood of this plan materializing. Week 1, you stay true to your word and feature Reggie Bush as your RB, giving him 20 touches and likely another 5-7 targets above that. He gets 95 total yards and a TD. Very respectable for a flex spot. So, I put my trust in you in Week 2, and you F me in the A! Why!?!?!

- The Pats look good, but whoa Pats secondary! For the second week in a row, you got torched! In Week 1, all-time Dolphin great Chad Henne goes for 416. In Week 2, all-time Douchebag great Phillip Rivers goes for 378. Granted, this may be a self-fulfilling prophecy: the Pats get a big lead in a hurry, and the opposing QB is left to throw all game, resulting in a lot of yards, many incompletions, and a few picks. But still--can the Pats afford to give away 400 yards a game in the air? I guess they can--so far. Note to self: start #1 WRs against the Pats' D. Might Ryan Fitzpatrick be a good starting QB against the Pats?

- Cam Newton did it again? He's on pace to eclipse 6,500 yards in the air and also rush for 500. Rookie of the year, anyone? Lotta picks, though. Charles Woodson had a field day with Newton on Sunday. Although I picked him up in my league, I am still skeptical. That team has been too one-dimensional thus far, and is 0-2 to show for it. The Panthers will need to start running the ball to win games--Newton's numbers will drop bigtime, and the Panthers should start winning games. Problem is, as long as the Panthers' D is so banged up, it's hard to see the Panthers not getting down early and often and having to throw deep to catch up. Also, the Jags give up a lot of yards through the air. Could he go off again?

- Miles Austin owners, you had a good two weeks. Good luck now. After two stellar weeks racking up 233 yards and 4 TD, Austin's hammy will keep him out until October 16th. Is anyone going to pick up Jesse Holley on this news? Not sure. Hopefully the excess throws will go to Jason Witten. With Romo banged up, Austin out, and the imbalance between the run and pass so huge, look for the Boys to start going to the ground and for short, check-down and dump-off passes more.

- If Big Ben can only put up a 15-point fantasy week against the Seahawks, what can we expect from him the rest of the year? Well, luckily, I think more. The Steelers still have (get this) the Colts, Jags, Cardinals, Browns twice, Bengals twice, Chiefs, Rams, and Niners on the schedule. Are you kidding me???? They even go against the Pats, who apparently like to get thrown on, and the Titans, who I can't imagine are that good. Big Ben, you better perform. Your owners want more yards and TDs out of you. Less rapes.

- Michael Turner is averaging 6.9 yards per carry this year. Matty Ice, stop throwing aimlessly to Julio Jones and give fatty the rock!

- Tony Gonzalez had a monster game against the Eagles (83 yards and 2 TD) and I think he provided the blueprint on how to attack the Eagles offensively. No team is going to have much success on the edges with Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha locking things down and DRC providing nickel coverage. Evidence: Roddy White 23 yards, Julio Jones 29 yards, Harry Douglas 19 yards. However, teams will be able to attack the linebacker corps of the Eagles, and also should have success undercutting the aggressive "wide 9" pass-rush technique with up-the-gut runs and well-timed screens. Between-the-tackles runners, tight ends and utility backs against the Eagles should be good plays throughout the year. At least until the Eagles O-line-coach-turned-Defensive-Coordinator figures out what's going on.

- Anyone who was supremely bored on Monday night and watched the Rams-Giants games knows this: Josh Brown is a good pickup at kicker. The Rams are a perfect fantasy kicker team. Strong-armed quarterback who can deliver the ball downfield with accuracy and relative ease, but enough question marks on offense to be predictable and thus dreadful in the red zone. Josh Brown got you 3 FGs and an XP on Monday. In Week 1, two FGs and an XP. And the guy's got a big leg. Should be good for a solid 7-12 points a week at the kicker spot.

- If you have a defense who likes to blitz, definitely start them when they play the Bears. The Bears-Saints game did not prove to me that the Saints still have a good defense. It proved to me that the Bears have an absolutely deplorable offensive line. On the 6 sacks Cutler took, I'd like to know the average elapsed time from snap to sack--couldn't have been more than 2 seconds. These were not coverage sacks. Every one was a blown assignment or a blitz that went unaddressed. Side note: few things make me happier than to see Jay Cutler in misery.

My quick thoughts on Week 2:

- Kenny Britt is a beast and a must-start as long as Hasselbeck continues to have this career-reviving year.
- Drew Brees hasn't thrown a pick yet, but look for that to change. Too many close calls so far. Quietly, Brees has the second-most completions of 70+ yards since the merger with 12 (first place, Favre, of course).
- Purely fantasy-wise, the Saints are a waste for your RB spots. Too much splitting between the three guys. Look to Sproles to get the red-zone TDs, as the Saints love the screen play in that part of the field.
- Matt Stafford, seriously? The guy is legitimately good! Watch him look off the safety on his long TD pass to Scheffler on Sunday. Let's see if he can pick apart Green Bay's D.
- Eli Manning is simply not that good. Even when he sets his feet and gets a throw off, he doesn't inspire confidence. And his receivers (except Nicks) are shaky at best. And now Hixon is out with an ACL. Ouch.
- The Texans are best in the league against the pass going into the Superdome this week. Something's gotta give.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Striking Fantasy Gold, Sort Of

Yesterday, I woke up to see that in one of my fantasy football leagues, I was down 124-60. My opponent still had Rob Gronkowski and Sebastian Janikowski going in the MNF games, while I had Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Dan Carpenter going for me. I needed my four guys to outscore his two guys by 64 points or more.

The way I saw it, Carpenter and Janikowski would cancel out, while Gronkowski and Lloyd would cancel out. So it was up to Brady and Welker to get me 64 or more points. A tall task for sure, but I'll be damned if they didn't give me 69 points! The highlight of those 69 points was the garbage time, 99-yard Brady to Welker TD pass. On that one play, I netted 9 points from Brady (4 for the yards and 5 for the TD) and 16 from Welker (10 for the yards and 6 for the TD), for a 25-point play. I discussed it with my brother, and I don't believe there is any play in football that can net a fantasy player more points than a 99-yard TD pass when you have both the QB and the receiver. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

So after the Pats-Fins game, I'm looking pretty good--Brady/Welker got me 69, while Gronk gave my opponent 16. So I made up 53 points of the 64-point deficit. Now, I just needed Brandon Lloyd to outscore Janikowski by 11. Again, not easy to do, but Lloyd was such a huge target for Orton all year, I thought at least he'd get 70-100 yds and a TD. What I did not expect was for that motherf*cker Janikowski to tie an NFL record 63-yd FG along with two other FGs, while Orton fumbled and threw the ball away all night. Totally hosed!

If you had told me that my four MNF players would net me 84 points, I would have been ecstatic. I put up 144 points and still lost. I got the best fantasy play possible, but all for naught. Sorry the picture's small--click through to see the original size.

Update: I've decided that there IS a play better than the one mentioned above. The same play, but with the addition of being "short" the opposing defense, ie, your opponent having the opposing defense. In my case, the Welker TD put the Pats above 35 points, which puts the Miami D in negative territory for points (and in more negative territory for yards, if the league is one that docks for yards given up).